Assessment of the relationship between climate, food security and conflict in Ethiopia and the Central American Dry Corridor (CDAC): quantitative analysis of the impact of climate variability on conflicts in Ethiopia and in CDAC countries – Ethiopia

Abstract

We live in a world of increasingly unpredictable, more frequent and more extreme climate impacts, where the most vulnerable are also the most exposed to climate shocks and stressors and are less able to improve their resilience in the face of these. In conflict situations, the impact of climate on food security, poverty, inequality and other existing threats and vulnerabilities can push the poorest and most vulnerable into a spiral of additional risk, insecurity and harm. ‘social exclusion. Likewise, in fragile contexts, the additional deprivations generated by the inability of the poorest households to cope with climate impacts, can dramatically increase competition for essential resources and exacerbate grievances, tensions and conflicts. Thus, recognizing the role of climate on peace and security has become a priority for many national and international political decision-makers.

The objective of this report is to present the results of the PAM – CGIAR project “Action on climate change and food security to improve the prospects for peace” started in October 2020. The project is part of an in-depth thematic dive on the climate change in the broad sense. , SIPRI-PAM multi-year knowledge partnership on understanding WFP’s contributions to improving prospects for peace. In this study, we investigate the climate-food security-conflict nexus in Ethiopia and the Central American Dry Corridor (CDAC). Ethiopia and the CADC are both hotspots of high climate variability, high political insecurity, conflict, and widespread food and nutrition insecurity among their populations. Therefore, the main research questions that this study aims to answer for the CADC countries (Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras) and Ethiopia are:

  • Is the climate exacerbating existing threats that could increase the risk of conflict in CDAC countries and Ethiopia?

  • Do areas of high climate variability coexist with high socio-political insecurity in CADC countries and Ethiopia?

  • How can WFP programming become more sensitive to climate security?

The results of this study are intended to inform WFP’s understanding of the link between climate and conflict and to help the organization address it as part of future WFP country strategic plans in the CDAC and Ethiopia. In addition, this research is part of the broader framework of the joint PAM-SIPRI-CGIAR research, the objective of which is to qualify and quantify the link between climate security and to assess whether, and how, the programming of the WFP mitigates conflict risks, including both the challenge of conflict – sensitive programming and WFP’s role in longer-term peacebuilding efforts amid negative climate trends.


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